A Junto Strategy Project
Well it looks like Texas Longhorn fans are getting an early Christmas “present.” Or are they?
According to sources, Mac Brown will officially step down at the end of this week. Coach Brown has been the head coach for the Texas Longhorns for the past 13 years and has the second most wins in Texas history (158). During his tenure, Brown regularly had recruiting classes in the top 15 and brought home a national title in 2005. But since 2009, the program has been a bit “stuck” with a record of just 30-20. So with another disappointing season of 8-4 in the books the seat got a little too hot for Coach Brown and he will now exit stage left.
This story is intriguing to me on many levels, especially from a leadership development and leadership succession planning standpoint. In fact, this very story is an example of what will most likely be the basis of my doctoral research. While Texas fans are cheering right now, the hard cold reality from what I have studied is that the odds say they will do even worse under a new coach. For examples of this, take a look at BYU after LaVell Edwards walked away or Nebraska after Frank Solich got the boot or Notre Dame after Lou Holtz. From an initial review of the data from the past 41 years, 15 Division I, FBS programs have been in the spot that Texas is in right now. They were replacing a coach that had spent at least 10 years at their school and had won at least 55 percent of their games. Of the 15 programs that went out and found a new coach, only three did as well or a little better than the previous coaching regime. I’m not a betting man, but even I can see that those are not good odds – 80% chance of failure odds to be precise.
It is human nature to believe that the grass is greener on the other side of the hill. But Texas fans may soon learn that this early Christmas present of Mac Brown stepping down is actually a lump of coal.